RBI's unique focus on WPI inflation is misguided even as demand-driven factors have become relatively less important.
After staging a strong recovery from COVID-induced slowdown in 2021, India's exports are likely to extend the growth story to the New Year also on increased demand in the global markets, boost in domestic manufacturing due to production-linked incentive schemes and implementation of some interim trade pacts. Expectations of positive growth in the country's exports are also backed up by the outlook of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) which predicts a 4.7 per cent expansion in the global merchandise trade volume in 2022. Exporters believe that the outbound shipments would cross $400 billion mark in this fiscal going by the current momentum and may reach $475 billion in 2022-23.
Other gainers include ONGC, Bajaj Auto, Kotak Bank, TCS, Tata Steel, Axis Bank, Maruti, HDFC and HUL, surging up to 3.03 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will stay away from changing key rates - including the reverse repo rate - this fiscal in the backdrop of Omicron. However, it will continue to shape the rate movements through liquidity market operations. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, group chief economic advisor, State Bank of India, said whether Omicron surge or not, there is not going to be any hike this year. However, the central bank may continue to shape rates through market operations.
He was most recently credited as one of the brains behind labour law reforms in Rajasthan
The 30-share S&P BSE Sensex ended up 130 points at 25,400 and the Nifty50 rose 46 points to close at 7,759.
The dollar's gains against other currencies overseas and a lower opening in the domestic equity market also put pressure on the local unit, forex dealers said.
While RBI may cut rates by 25 basis points in the February policy review, global monetary policies hold the key to much of the financial assets flow in 2017
India's exports contracted by 22 per cent, the steepest decline in the last three years, to $32.97 billion in June on account of global demand slowdown, especially in the Western markets like the US and Europe. According to the data of the commerce ministry, the trade deficit in June stood at $20.3 billion against $22.07 billion in the same month last year due to a fall in exports and imports. The inbound shipments during the month under review declined by a steep 17.48 per cent to $53.10 billion.
The Reserve Bank has told the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the objective of frequent interventions in the forex market is to curb excessive volatility, dismissing the Fund's rationale for reclassifying India's exchange rate regime. The IMF, following the Article IV consultation with the Indian authorities, reclassified the status of the exchange rate regime to "stabilised arrangement" from "floating" for period between December 2022 to October 2023. India's Executive Director at IMF K V Subramanian and Senior Advisors Sanjay Kumar Hansda and Anand Singh questioned the selection period adopted by the Fund for analysis and also reclassification of the country's exchange rate regime.
The rupee on Tuesday recovered from its all-time intra day low of 77.79 to close higher by 7 paise on a stellar rally in domestic stock markets. After opening lower at 77.67, the local unit plunged further to its all-time intra-day low of 77.79 due to a spike in crude oil prices and disappointing macroeconomic data. However, a strong rally in domestic equities helped the rupee rebound and close at 77.48 (provisional), showing net gains of 7 paise over the last close of 77.55. The forex market was closed on Monday on account of Buddha Purnima.
The markets will remain choppy ahead of RBI policy.
Asian Development Bank on Wednesday lowered India's economic growth forecast for FY2019 to 5.1 per cent on slowing job prospects, rural distress exacerbated by poor harvest and credit crunch. Growth in FY2020 is likely to recover thanks to this support, low oil prices, and a weakening rupee, but risks to the projections remain tilted to the downside, it said on India.
His visit to India followed a few cancelled plans since he took office in July 2019 due to the coronavirus pandemic crisis, with the two leaders holding several virtual talks and eventually meeting in person on the sidelines of the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow last November.
Exactly a fortnight ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) next monetary policy review, a key market indicator of interest rates - the overnight indexed swap (OIS) - suggests that the central bank may tighten policy by 35 basis points and then refrain from further rate hikes. RBI Deputy Governor Michael Patra recently described the OIS as the primary instrument for hedging interest rate risk in India. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI will meet on December 5-7.
'After a long time, we have a governor who is approachable. The RBI's interactions with us are now much better.'
The dollar-rupee rate could move in the opposite direction if dollar policy rates rise and the FPIs sell in December, says Devangshu Datta.
The visit, which is expected around April 22, is long overdue after Johnson was forced to cancel planned visits to India twice last year due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Banks, real-estate sectors lead gains.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will meet top executives of asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) on Friday to take stock of the sector. During the meeting, ARCs will also seek clarity from the regulator on bank borrowing. While there is no regulatory ban in place, ARC sources said banks often refuse funding.
India is not so keen to co-operate with the US on IPR related probe.
The rupee appreciated by three paise to close at one-week high of 60.81 against the US dollar in the previous session on sustained dollar selling by exporters and capital inflows.
Out of 30 key export sectors, as many as 22 showed negative growth in September.
Dispute over IPR was a bone of contention in bilateral ties till a couple of months ago.
'At a time when the entire India-US relationship needs to be defined by President Trump and Prime Minister Modi, a fresh look at the liability issue has become urgent,' says Ambassador T P Sreenivasan, former Governor for India at the IAEA.
Here is an explainer on the functioning of the seven-year-old body.
Pakistan's deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, who is in China on a four-day visit, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi co-chaired the fifth round of the foreign minister-level China-Pakistan Strategic Dialogue.
Forex dealers said besides increased dollar selling by exporters, strength in other currencies against the American currency overseas also supported the rupee but a lower opening of the domestic equity market capped the gains.
The overall market breadth in BSE remained positive with 1,545 stocks advancing and 1,221 stocks declining.
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The rupee has avoided the heavy losses suffered by some emerging Asian currencies such as the Philippine peso this year because of its efforts to narrow the current account deficit, and strong foreign investor inflows.
'I found it unbelievable that L&T said 45,000 jobs were waiting to be filled because of unavailability of suitable skillsets.' 'So, when the Opposition sweepingly says there are no jobs, I'm sorry... I'm not saying it's raining jobs, but there are jobs. The (skill) gap has to be bridged.'
Modi sees export-led growth one of the best ways to create jobs.
Markets continue to trade on a strong note in the late morning deals on the back of positive global cues and buying visible in the banking and capital goods stocks ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) policy review which is due on Tuesday.
Traders are now focussed on the upcoming November trade data, due sometime this week, for near-term direction, with consumer inflation data due out on Thursday, which will help set expectations ahead of the Reserve Bank of India's policy review on December 18.
With EU, it is part of the FTA that we will need to negotiate.
Among other things, taking note of complaints against several Chinese e-commerce players such as Shein, Ali Express etc for sending shipments as 'gifts' to customers in India and avoiding duties, the government has now mandated that all e-commerce sites and apps must have a registered business entity. This will be the importer on record and subject to customs rules, report Subhayan Chakraborty, Neha Alawadhi and Karan Choudhury.
Revising up inflation bands for the central bank will hurt the poor, former deputy governor of RBI Viral Acharya said on Wednesday, terming the current 4 per cent midpoint on price-rise as a "reasonable target".
BSE market breadth was neutral with 1,383 stocks on the advancing side and 1,361 stocks on the declining side.
Brokerage firm Nomura said inflation levels in India are close to post global financial crisis lows, and also retained its positive stance on Sensex.
